Hochman: This is the year (one way or another) we see the true Jordan Walker for Cardinals

It’s 2026. Jordan Walker is a star.

The Cardinals outfielder is beloved across the St. Louis area (from O’Fallon, Missouri, to O’Fallon, Illinois). His breakout 2025 showcased the slugger’s readjusted swing and swagger. Walker is one of baseball’s top young players — considering he only turned 23 on May 22, 2025.

It’s 2026. Jordan Walker is a bust.

The Cardinals outfielder, who can’t seem to hit the ball regularly in the air, now is in a purgatory so often seen with recent prospects. He lost his starting job, he’s trying to become a first baseman and he’s seemingly in every other trade rumor on Twitter. He turns just 24 in May 2026, yet the Cardinals — and their fans — are ready to move on.

Is it weird that both scenarios seem realistic?

I want to believe that the right field starter is closer to star than bust. I’ve routinely written optimistically about him. But this is the year. He’s going to play every day. He’s still quite young with potential. He’s got a longer runway than St. Louis Lambert International Airport. While the Cardinals are in a state of transition and there is some leeway, this is the defining year for Walker, the 6-foot-6 hitter of thunderous ground balls. In 2025, the Dodgers are “World Series or bust.” Walker is “improve or bust.”

I’ll admit, I’m excited about the idea of him. This might fuel the optimism. But here’s an extremely likable young star who could revitalize a franchise and a fan base. He came into our orbit with such high heights as a hitting prospect. So well-regarded it was almost too good to be true. So there is a belief here that Walker can become the best version of Walker, a person who can transcend this town the way, say, the MV3 guys did.

But of course, there’s a bunch of data, too.

His ground-ball rate in 2023 was 46.9% — and it was 50.9% in 2024. His chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and xwOBA all were in the 25th percentile or below of all players, per Baseball Savant. For those not into those type of stats, here’s this: He hit .276 in 2023 but .201 last year.

And the stat OPS+ uses 100 as a baseline for an average major leaguer. For his career, Walker is at 101.

But there are glimpses of greatness! Or, at least, glimpses of tools that could lead to greatness. For all the frustration about his lack of power, he still has 21 career homers in 584 at-bats, which wouldn’t be bad for a full season. And he’s got Aaron Judge-like bat speed. Like, literally. Last season, Walker’s bat speed was 77.3 mph, while Judge’s was 77.2. Of players who took at least 100 balls into play last year, Walker’s bat speed average was fifth-best. He trailed just Kyle Schwarber (77.5), Jhonkensy Noel (78.1), Oneil Cruz (78.6) and Giancarlo Stanton (81.3).

As we’ve all written about this spring, Walker has developed a close relationship with new hitting coach Brant Brown, who must develop Walker’s hitting. They feel like they’ve unlocked some things in Walker.

“I like his setup — I think it will lend itself to more consistency,” manager Oliver Marmol recently told reporters about Walker’s hitting. “The bat path is better, as well. Prior to the little knee (injury that kept Walker briefly out this spring), I thought we were starting to see him use the big part of the field, and the ball was on a line and in the air. I like that. We’ll continue to get him as many at-bats.”

But in spring training games, Walker hit .161 in his 31 at-bats and didn’t homer. It is fair to say spring stats don’t matter (and for many players over many years, they haven’t). Then again, Victor Scott II’s spring stats earned him a job next to Walker in the outfield.

Now, one thing to keep in mind — Michael Siani is the Cardinals’ fourth outfielder. Siani has a glove worthy some day of gold. So it’s quite possible Marmol will replace Walker with Siani late in games. But there likely won’t be any Memphis trips for Walker — Monday’s trip by the whole big league club there for an exhibition game notwithstanding.

Walker will get his at-bats. This is the year he must show he can hang.

As for the debate on who he can become, it’s pretty revealing in one particular list. Baseball Reference has something called “similarity scores.” It’s a catch-all number that compares players to other players from other generations. On the list of Walker’s similar batters through age 22, there are former All-Stars such as Dave Winfield, Dwight Evans, Ruppert Jones and Chili Davis. There is also a bust in Travis Snider.

And there’s a familiar name to Cardinals fans: Dylan Carlson.

Asked Monday about Walker, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said: “(He’s) going to get a chance. You’re going to get more than a month. I can tell you that. It is about creating that runway to see what we have. ...

“Prior to him missing time (in spring) I thought he was really swinging the bat well. Hoping he can find that groove again because he was making hard contact, made some loud outs, but it was hard contact — which is what we saw a couple of years ago. I do think some of the adjustments he’s made is trying to replicate some of the things he was doing at Double-A, and hopefully he can continue that.”